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Updated May 3, 2020.

March 2, 2020

It's not quite a full-blown recession, but it's a weak economy. That's the conclusion from an influential set of chart watchers who say it would take a major catastrophe to jolt us out of the doldrums.

Dow Jones, in its most recent economic outlook, cautioned that it expects gross domestic product to grow 2.1% in 2020, slower than its original forecast. U.S. unemployment is projected to rise to 8.5% in 2020, which would be the highest since 2010, and the federal fiscal stimulus will expire by the end of this year.

Last month, the World Economic Forum (WEF) issued an even gloomier report on the outlook, which included a forecast for a 30% drop in global GDP in 2020.

While the Federal Reserve has done a yeoman's job of keeping Wall Street humming, the weakness of the rest of the economy is causing Fed officials concern that they may need to pull out the stops to keep the economy afloat.

"It's much better, but this is still a weak economy," UBS' Matthew Sherwood, a former IMF economist, told an audience in New York. "We'd say it's a recession if GDP is negative and rising."

The U.S. economy has lost momentum over the past month or so, and GDP estimates have been cut dramatically. The strong dollar is at work: The U.S. dollar is now by far the most valuable currency in the world, worth almost $1.25 trillion more than a year ago. The dollar is accounting for about 50% of that gain, as well as the 3% decline in oil prices.

"We're seeing significant dollar strength, and the dollar is starting to weigh on manufacturing and trade," Erik Davidson, managing director of IHS Markit's U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index. "There's been a clear and broad pullback from the strong manufacturing performance in the second half of last year."

The manufacturing PMI declined to 49.3 in February, the lowest level